PGA Championship 2025: Expert Analysis and Betting Strategies

Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. Rory is currently on a strong run. Having recently achieved the career Grand Slam, he returns to Quail Hollow, a course where he has won four times. This venue is his domain, and he is poised to win again.

Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Thomas seems ready for a third PGA Championship win. Ending a nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff win at the RBC Heritage and following it with a second-place finish at the Truist Championship, his confidence and putting are sharp. He returns to Quail Hollow, the site of his 2017 Wanamaker Trophy victory.

Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. The world number one is often underestimated. While his demeanor is calm, his competitive spirit is intense. He will likely prove doubters wrong once more.

Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Thomas found his elite form in late 2024, starting with a second-place tie at the Zozo Championship. His return to Quail Hollow, where he won his first PGA Championship, sets him up for another victory.

Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. His recent Masters win appears to have significantly reduced pressure, potentially allowing him to play more relaxed golf than in years. A relaxed McIlroy is formidable. With four prior wins, he has mastered Quail Hollow.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes the most obvious pick is the right one. Having completed the Grand Slam by winning the Masters, he has arguably been the world`s best golfer in 2025. Given his four wins at Quail Hollow and the course`s suitability for long hitters, he is the clear choice.

Andy North: Shane Lowry. Lowry has shown strong form recently, combining excellent driving with precise iron play.

Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If the winning formula requires distance off the tee, strong long irons, and consistent putting, DeChambeau fits the profile. He will be motivated to bounce back from a challenging final round at the Masters and recently won on the LIV Golf tour in Korea. He has four top-six finishes in his last five majors, including a runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship. He is a strong candidate to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his collection.

Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. McIlroy arrives at the PGA Championship having already won this year`s two most significant events: the Players Championship and the Masters. The pressure accumulated over 14 years appears lifted, resulting in immense confidence across his game. This mental and physical freedom, combined with returning to Quail Hollow – a course where he holds the lowest scoring average among players with at least 20 rounds and where he has won four times – makes him the top pick.

Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy (over Scottie Scheffler by one stroke). Strange favors the Masters champion at the PGA Championship, anticipating further discussion of a potential Grand Slam.

Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. While picking Rory might seem too simple given his recent form and success at Quail Hollow, it`s difficult to choose anyone else. Although winning back-to-back majors is challenging, all signs point to this week being ideal for McIlroy, who has arguably been the best player globally this year.

Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Quail Hollow is a lengthy course, and expected wet conditions will further emphasize driving distance. DeChambeau`s power off the tee will be a significant advantage, leading him to victory.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (Odds +2000). While picking McIlroy or Scheffler is tempting, their low odds (+500 or less) are costly. Looking beyond the top two, Schauffele is a strong contender. His disciplined and versatile game is well-suited for a long and competitive course like Quail Hollow.

David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (Odds +4500). Lowry could be considered a second-tier favorite, but his odds offer value. As a strong ball-striker (third in strokes gained: tee to green) with two top-six finishes in recent PGA Championships, he is a good alternative pick outside the top favorites.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (Odds +475). Despite his recent Masters win, Quail Hollow is particularly favorable for McIlroy; it`s his domain. The course suits his powerful drives and long iron play, enabling his four wins here. He has unparalleled course knowledge. While the odds are low, his history and suitability for Quail Hollow make him the clear betting favorite.

Tyler Fulghum: Patrick Reed (Odds +550). LIV golfers, except DeChambeau, are often overlooked, creating value in majors. Reed is another LIV player who performs well in majors, including a third-place finish at the Masters in April and a second-place tie at the 2017 PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow.

David Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (Odds +140). DeChambeau leads all players with three top-five finishes in PGA Championships since 2020. His six major top-fives since 2020 are at diverse venues, highlighting his adaptability. Quail Hollow rewards driving distance, which suits him perfectly. While he is a strong outright winner or top-five contender, the top-10 bet offers solid value.

Pamela Maldonado: Jon Rahm (Odds +190). Rahm`s powerful driving and accurate long irons make him suited for a demanding course like Quail Hollow, particularly the challenging `Green Mile`. His ability to navigate tough conditions and his strong approach play mean he remains a threat even when not at his best.

Tyler Fulghum: Rory McIlroy to finish in the Top 10 after Round 1 (Odds +200). Finding appealing plus-money bets on McIlroy is difficult. Although he doesn`t always start majors quickly, his comfort and success at Quail Hollow, combined with the confidence from his Masters win, suggest he could begin strongly.

David Gordon: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler in a tournament matchup (Odds -110). As noted by others, McIlroy has significant advantages here. Despite Scheffler`s recent record-tying performance, McIlroy`s superior course knowledge, driving distance, and putting give him the edge in this head-to-head bet.

Pamela Maldonado: Rory McIlroy to finish in the Top 10 after Round 1 (Odds +200). Having completed the career Grand Slam, McIlroy approaches Quail Hollow with composure and confidence. His mental clarity, combined with his comfort on this course, allows him to play his natural game methodically, setting up a strong start.

Tyler Fulghum: Tony Finau (Odds +12500). While Finau`s current form isn`t spectacular, his powerful driving is an asset. The high odds are appealing for a player with his talent, especially considering the PGA Championship has a history of producing surprise winners.

David Gordon: Denny McCarthy (Odds +17500). McCarthy has performed well at Quail Hollow previously, with ties for sixth and eighth place in the last two years. He is one of only three players with eight or more rounds at par or better here recently. Although not a long hitter, he compensates for it at this course, evidenced by a T-5 finish at the long Torrey Pines this season. His putting could be key.

Pamela Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (Odds +11000). Mitchell shows promising recent form with five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-7 last week, indicating improving consistency. His ball-striking is strong, and he is gaining strokes tee-to-green. With two prior top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, betting on a top-20 finish (Odds +320) is sensible, while the longer odds (+11000) offer a high-reward option.

David Gordon: Corey Conners as the Low Canadian player (Odds +165). Conners has consistently been the top Canadian in recent majors (four out of the last five, six out of the last eight). He has five top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season and performed well at Quail Hollow in the past two years (T-13 and T-8).

Pamela Maldonado: Justin Thomas vs. Xander Schauffele tournament matchup (Odds -120). Thomas has a proven winning record at Quail Hollow. While Schauffele is capable, Thomas`s approach play and stronger iron game provide a crucial advantage on this course, which emphasizes precise ball striking.