The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Florida Panthers in the decisive Game 7 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals series on Sunday. Toronto successfully avoided elimination by securing a 2-0 victory in Game 6 in Florida, bringing an end to their three-game losing streak and pushing the series to a winner-take-all showdown. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario.
According to the latest odds, Florida enters this crucial game as a -130 favorite on the moneyline (bet $130 to win $100), while Toronto is listed as a +109 underdog (bet $100 to win $109). The over/under for the total number of goals scored is set at 5.5. Florida is also favored on the puck line at -1.5, with odds of +205. Expert insights and betting recommendations for the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers matchup are provided by SportsLine`s highly acclaimed computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times and has demonstrated impressive results during the 2025 NHL playoffs. As of the second week of the conference semifinals, the model boasts a combined record of 79-55 on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks, resulting in a return of over $1,600 for players betting $100. Its proven track record makes its predictions highly valuable.
Model`s Best Bets for Game 7
One of the model`s top recommendations for the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 7 is betting on the Over 5.5 total goals, with odds currently at +136. This series has seen a high frequency of scoring, with four of the six games surpassing a total of seven goals. Notably, all three games played in Toronto have been high-scoring affairs. Both teams were among the league`s stronger offensive clubs during the regular season, with Toronto ranking 7th in goals per game (3.26) and Florida 15th (3.0). The SportsLine model`s simulations predict the Over hitting in more than 50% of potential outcomes.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)
Another recommended player prop bet is for Carter Verhaeghe to record Over 2.5 shots on goal, available at -120 odds. Verhaeghe has averaged 2.5 shots per game in this series and is second among Panthers players in total shot attempts, averaging 6.5 attempts per game. He scored a crucial goal in Florida`s Game 4 victory and demonstrated offensive initiative in Game 6 with four shot attempts, tied for the most on the team. Given the do-or-die nature of Game 7, the model anticipates the regular-season 20-goal scorer will be highly aggressive in generating scoring chances.
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
The model also favors Auston Matthews to register Over 3.5 shots on goal, with odds around -115. Matthews scored his third goal of the postseason in Game 6 and has consistently recorded three or more shots in nearly every playoff game this year. He leads the Maple Leafs in total shots throughout this series with 24. In Game 6, he tallied four shots, more than any other Toronto player. As one of only three Maple Leafs players who have scored in the last three games, the model projects a continued aggressive approach from the star center in Game 7.
For additional NHL picks and predictions for Game 7 and the ongoing Chase for the Stanley Cup, you can consult the SportsLine model`s further analysis of the 2025 NHL playoffs.
