The Ottawa Senators face a must-win situation as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto holds a dominant 3-0 lead in the series heading into Game 4. The Maple Leafs secured Game 1 with a decisive 6-2 victory, followed by narrow 3-2 overtime wins in both Games 2 and 3.
Historically, only four teams in NHL history have managed to come back and win a series after trailing 3-0; the most recent instance was the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. For the Senators to have any hope of joining this exclusive group and continuing their season, securing a win on Saturday is absolutely critical.
According to SportsLine consensus odds, the Senators are slight home favorites with a -113 money-line (meaning a $113 bet wins $100). The Maple Leafs are close behind at -107. The total goals line is set at 5.5.
Both teams feature prominent star players. For Toronto, key figures include Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had an outstanding 2024-25 season, achieving his first career 100-point campaign. Matthews, despite missing 15 games, recorded his lowest point total since the shortened 2020-21 season. These two Maple Leafs stars are central figures in the featured same-game parlay picks for Saturday, which are derived from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, offering top-rated player prop picks with ratings up to five stars. These selections are crucial for building winning parlays or same-game parlays on sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Sleeper Fantasy, and other available betting sites.
Below are the top three player prop picks from the SportsLine model for Saturday`s Game 4 between the Maple Leafs and Senators, along with the potential payout for combining them in a same-game parlay:
Maple Leafs-Senators SGP (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): 5 stars
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): 4.5 stars
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): 4 stars
The model expresses high confidence that both Marner and Matthews will be held below 1.5 total points in Saturday`s contest, ranking these as the top props for the game. Although Marner has accumulated six points and Matthews five points in the series thus far, the model forecasts them to register only 0.3 and 0.5 points, respectively, in Game 4. Historically, both players have finished under their total points props in four of their last five games against teams with middle-tier defenses.
On the Senators` side, Tim Stutzle, who was the team`s leading scorer this year, is also projected to finish under his 0.5 point line. The 23-year-old winger has recorded just one point throughout the entire series, and the model predicts 0.3 points for him on Saturday. He has also finished under his points prop in four of his last five games when Ottawa was the favored team.
