The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to begin their quest for the Stanley Cup, their first since 1967, as they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Winning the Atlantic Division, Toronto boasted the second-highest points total in the Eastern Conference with 108. Ottawa, still in search of their first Stanley Cup, qualified as the top Eastern Conference wild-card team.
The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET at Toronto`s Scotiabank Arena. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Toronto is a -164 money line favorite, while Ottawa is a +138 underdog. The over/under for total goals is 5.5. Leading NHL prediction models are providing insights for this matchup.
Statistical models, simulating games thousands of times, have shown profitability in NHL regular seasons, particularly excelling in puck line and over/under predictions. These models offer valuable insights for informed betting.
Expert Picks for Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game 1
Maple Leafs to Win (-160 Money Line)
Despite Ottawa`s season series sweep, Toronto enters Game 1 as the favorite at home. Toronto has been a strong money line bet throughout the season and holds a solid home record. Their recent 13-3 run further supports their momentum. Projections indicate a 62% chance of a Maple Leafs victory. FanDuel offers these odds at -160.
Over 5.5 Total Goals (-110)
While initial games between these teams were low-scoring, their last encounter saw a total of six goals. Ottawa is also entering the playoffs on an “Over” streak. Predictions suggest a high probability of goals from Toronto`s key players and Ottawa`s offensive threats, estimating a total of 5.6 goals, favoring the over.
Auston Matthews – Anytime Goalscorer (+117)
Auston Matthews, known for his consistent point production and scoring ability, has a strong track record against the Senators. With a high projected chance of scoring in this game, betting on Matthews to score anytime at +117 with Caesars Sportsbook presents an attractive option.
