OAKMONT, Pa. — Two days of play are complete at Oakmont Country Club, and remarkably, only three out of 156 players remain under par: Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun, and Viktor Hovland. This is truly characteristic of a U.S. Open.
As the year`s third major championship heads into the weekend, here`s a look at the key takeaways from the second round (concluded Saturday morning) and what lies ahead for the remainder of the tournament.
What Score Can Still Contend?
Mark Schlabach: Historically, the U.S. Open winner is usually among the top five after 36 holes. Over the past 12 tournaments, 11 champions were in this group, with Matt Fitzpatrick in 2022 being the sole exception, tied for 13th. Only three champions in the event`s 125-year history were outside the top 20 after two rounds. However, Oakmont`s challenging nature has still seen impressive scores, like Spaun`s 66 and Burns` 65.
This suggests someone several shots back could potentially make a significant move over the weekend, especially if conditions soften. As U.S. Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley noted, a very low round might be possible if it rains, which it started doing Friday night.
Paolo Uggetti: While a player starting the weekend 5 or 6 over par *might* make a small charge if the lead stays near even, the most realistic contender from further back is undoubtedly Scottie Scheffler, currently 4 over. Despite showing frustration Friday and not gaining ground with a 71, he`s only seven shots behind the leader, Burns. Oakmont heavily favors precise ball-striking, a core strength for Scheffler. As he stated, `At the U.S. Open I don`t think you`re ever out of the tournament.`
He was seen working intensely with his coach after his round, hinting at a potential swing adjustment needed, similar to how he turned things around at the PGA Championship. If he finds his form, he becomes a serious threat to the field.
Weekend Weather Forecast and Potential Impact
Paolo Uggetti: A significant downpour hit Oakmont late Friday as the second round concluded, setting the stage for a different course over the weekend. More rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday (90% chance) and Sunday (70% chance). With minimal wind expected, the course will likely play softer.
However, difficulty will remain high due to even thicker rough and the USGA`s ability to adjust pin positions and green speeds. Players are prepared for the conditions. Ben Griffin, at even par, commented, `I`ll play in anything unless it`s lightning… It`s just more of an annoyance… Obviously it softens conditions… Maybe slightly easier, or maybe we`ll have to start thinking about spin control… I`m down for whatever.` The wet conditions will certainly influence strategy.
Who is the Current Favorite?
Mark Schlabach: It feels like a wide-open tournament with perhaps 10 to 15 players realistically in contention. Sam Burns, despite a mixed record in majors before last year`s T9 at the U.S. Open, has five PGA Tour wins and looks strong this week. His exceptional putting (55 putts through 36 holes) combined with solid iron play (gaining 2+ strokes on approach) and short game (gaining ~2 strokes) makes him a formidable leader.
He`s already racked up 11 birdies, matching Dustin Johnson`s total when he won here in 2016. Burns emphasized a need to `free it up` rather than trying to be perfect on this difficult course. He`s held or shared the 36-hole lead eight times on the PGA Tour, winning once.
Paolo Uggetti: Oakmont has historically crowned first-time major champions (7 out of 9 winners here), and Viktor Hovland, one of the three players under par, fits that profile perfectly. His first two rounds showed contrasting stats: strong approach play but poor putting Thursday, then weaker approach but better putting Friday. For the tournament, he`s performing well off the tee, on approach, and with his short game (all top 15 in strokes gained), but ranks poorly in putting (111th).
His path to victory is clear: if his putting improves even slightly, his excellent ball-striking should keep him near the top. Crucially, he seemed remarkably calm on Friday compared to many frustrated competitors. When asked about nearly losing his mind, he simply shrugged, `I didn`t really come close. I kept it together pretty nicely.` Maintaining that composure will be a significant asset at Oakmont.
Potential Sleeper Contender
Mark Schlabach: Is it fair to call a former world No. 1 and Masters champion a sleeper? If so, Adam Scott, tied for fourth after two consecutive even-par 70s, fits the description. At 44, he`s playing what he calls `old-man-par golf` and is among the oldest players to be in the top 5 after 36 holes at the U.S. Open in the last 20 years.
Scott hasn`t been spectacular but has been incredibly steady, avoiding major mistakes and offsetting bogeys with birdies. His strength lies in his driving (averaging 313 yards, hitting 17/28 fairways, gaining 2+ strokes off the tee) and approach play (hitting 27/36 greens, second in the field, gaining 2+ strokes). He commented that staying in the fairway reduces stress. Despite a quiet season with no prior top 10s and a missed Masters cut (I admit I wrote him off earlier this week), he`s proving doubters wrong. When asked about his window to win a major, he responded, `Ajar.`
Paolo Uggetti: Another player who excels in challenging major setups is Brooks Koepka, currently five shots back with eight players ahead of him. Koepka briefly threatened Friday morning after a strong back nine but dropped shots on the front. With two U.S. Open titles already, he is known for elevating his game on difficult courses like Oakmont.
He attributes recent improvements to working with coach Pete Cowen, getting his swing back on a consistent track with a reliable fade. However, similar to Hovland, Koepka has struggled with his short game and putting this week. If he can improve his performance around the greens, he has the major championship pedigree to make a significant run over the weekend.
Biggest Disappointments So Far
Mark Schlabach: The list of high-profile players missing the cut is extensive and includes many notable names like Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Smith, Ludvig Åberg (all 8 over), Tommy Fleetwood (9 over), Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau (both 10 over), Sepp Straka (11 over), Justin Thomas (12 over), Justin Rose (14 over), and Shane Lowry (17 over).
Arguably the biggest disappointment is Bryson DeChambeau. As a former U.S. Open champion and a recent contender at the PGA Championship, his struggles at Oakmont were unexpected. His Friday round of 77 (+7) was particularly poor, featuring eight bogeys, a double bogey, and only three birdies. Usually a strong putter, he lost about 1½ strokes on the greens, requiring 61 putts over 36 holes, unable to master Oakmont`s speed. His accuracy off the tee (13/28 fairways) and performance with his new irons (hitting only 20/36 greens) also contributed to his early exit.
