CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Following the second round of the PGA Championship, discussions around mud balls lessened, while many players advanced on a remarkably diverse leaderboard. While some surprising early contenders faltered, 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas maintained his form and now holds the lead after the second round. Perhaps the most significant development was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler`s 3-under performance, positioning him strongly for a potential third major victory.
I think most of me is just glad to be close to the lead. If you`re going to play a 72-hole golf tournament, there`s going to be days and stretches of golf where you`re not swinging it your best. Over the course of a tournament this long and on a major championship setup, there`s going to be some bumps in the road. It`s all about how you respond to those. I did a good job of responding to those mistakes today and keeping myself in the tournament.
— Scottie Scheffler
Furthermore, Scheffler remains the favorite to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here`s a look at what to anticipate this weekend.
Jhonattan Vegas leads after the second round; what are his chances of winning?
Mark Schlabach: While `Johnny Vegas` might not be a widely recognized winner among golf enthusiasts, his career journey is quite remarkable. He excelled as a junior player in Venezuela before relocating to Houston in 2004 when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly intended to convert urban golf courses into public housing.
Upon arriving in the U.S., he reportedly knew minimal English and possessed well-worn clubs. He progressed sufficiently to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning professional, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before claiming his inaugural PGA Tour victory at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has since won three more times, most recently at the 3M Open in July.
Vegas mentioned poor sleep before Friday`s round after finishing late the previous day. Sleeping on his first major lead likely didn`t help either. He`ll have to sleep on another 2-shot advantage before Saturday`s round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open. This marks only his third start in one of the four major championships since then.
A double-bogey on the 18th hole somewhat spoiled an otherwise solid second round for Vegas. He finished at 1-under 70, ending the day with a two-stroke lead. After gaining nearly four strokes putting in the first round, his performance on the greens cooled considerably in the second, losing almost one stroke. However, his play from tee to green remained outstanding.
I would be highly surprised if Vegas achieves a wire-to-wire victory at the PGA Championship.
Paolo Uggetti: According to Data Golf, Vegas has a 9.4% chance of winning. This indicates that even with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, he is only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% chance, three shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% chance, five shots back) are the top contenders.
The fact that Vegas not only stayed competitive in the second round but shot under par and retained the lead is impressive. However, if I were evaluating his actual probabilities, I`d estimate around 5%, or possibly less.
I feel like my game is very complete, but I just haven`t been able to put it all together in a major. I think I`ve been patient enough to not really get too down on myself for not playing well at majors. It`s just kind of one of those things that you`ve just got to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play good here. Unfortunately, it`s taking me a little bit longer than usual, but I`m glad that I`m in this position right now.
— Jhonattan Vegas
His story is certainly compelling, as Mark noted, but if Vegas were to lift the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would be among the most unexpected major triumphs since Jimmy Walker won the PGA in 2017. Perhaps even more improbable.
Which player(s) outside the top 10 could still emerge victorious?
Mark Schlabach: I predicted DeChambeau would win before the tournament began, and he remains within contention at 3 under. The LIV Golf League player rebounded from an even-par 71 in the first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is tied for 17th, five strokes behind the leader, Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball a considerable distance at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting has been consistently strong, as expected. However, DeChambeau`s iron play is still somewhat inconsistent, similar to his performance at the Masters, and he is dissatisfied with his chipping (losing almost two strokes on Thursday, with slight improvement on Friday).
You have to have your irons super precise this week, which we all know how good my wedges are, so that makes it a little bit more difficult for me. That`s OK, though.
It`s a great test. I`ve just got to have my putting a little more on and keep playing the way I am. It easily could be 7, 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So just keep moving along, and I think a 65, 64 is out there. I almost shot it out there today and I definitely saw it out there, I just didn`t accomplish it.
— Bryson DeChambeau
Paolo Uggetti: Many prominent players are positioned outside the top 10, and in a tournament that feels relatively open like this one, any player could potentially make a charge.
Nevertheless, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I anticipate that the top players will eventually rise to the forefront. Despite recent difficulties in some major championships, perhaps no one excels at this more than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has posted two understated yet very solid rounds, sitting at 2 under, six shots adrift of Vegas, heading into the weekend.
I think I`m in good position. Adding to the fact that I feel like I`m getting better, more confident with the swing. I made a lot of good swings out there today and gave myself plenty of chances.
— Jon Rahm
The conversation surrounding Rahm in majors has often focused on his inability to contend since winning the 2023 Masters, but it`s easy to forget that at that time, he appeared to be one of the most consistent and dominant players in golf. He continues to achieve top-10 finishes on the LIV tour, however one chooses to evaluate those results, and it wouldn`t surprise me to see him make a run at the top this weekend. He could certainly benefit from it.
How far behind is too far to remain in contention?
Paolo Uggetti: Is it overly optimistic to suggest that any player who made the cut could mount a challenge? Probably, but this course setup, similar to many past PGAs, has kept the leaderboard relatively compact. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) possess the ability to shoot very low scores and make a run. In my view, the effective leader right now is Scheffler at 5 under, but that also implies Scheffler would need to falter, which doesn`t seem likely. Players like Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy would need rounds in the mid-to-low 60s to have any realistic chance, but it`s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
A more realistic assessment is that being 1 under is likely too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots off the overall lead presents a considerable challenge.
Who is your pick heading into the weekend?
Mark Schlabach: I selected Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke on Friday with a 3-under 68, placing him in a tie for fifth. He showed improvement in nearly every aspect of his game in the second round, except for driving (hitting only six of 14 fairways).
I like the position I`m in going into the weekend. Obviously, I wish I was a little bit further up the leaderboard. I think I got a lot out of my game the last couple days. I felt like, as the round went on, my swing continued to get better, and I was able to hit some key shots down the stretch to give myself some opportunities. Looking forward to the weekend.
— Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other player in the top 10 who has previously won a major. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens are unlikely to withstand a charge from Scheffler.
Paolo Uggetti: Scheffler feels like the inevitable outcome, particularly since he hasn`t yet delivered a round demonstrating his status as the undisputed world No. 1. However, part of me keeps considering Bryson. He has been far from flawless this week and is clearly still struggling with his approach shots (ranking 77th in the field), but it also feels like he`s due for a round where everything aligns. His driving remains an incredible asset; he just needs to find the fairway more consistently to stand a chance.
Which player missing the cut was the biggest disappointment?
Mark Schlabach: There are numerous valid choices, as several of the world`s top golfers, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over), will not be competing at Quail Hollow over the weekend.
I would likely name JT as the biggest disappointment because I thought he had a strong opportunity to perform well this week. He won the RBC Heritage three weeks prior and claimed his first major title at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the opening round) and reached only 16 of 36 greens in regulation. He carded nine birdies but made far too many errors.
Paolo Uggetti: I`ll choose Åberg. His form had been inconsistent coming into this week, but Quail Hollow still seemed like a course that would suit his game well. Instead, he ranked 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach play. The sample size is small, and perhaps expectations have been set too high too quickly, but this marks Åberg`s second consecutive missed cut in two PGA Championship appearances.
