How to Bet on Golf in 2025: Strategies & PGA Championship Picks

Betting on golf presents a fascinating mix of beauty, frustration, and thrill—not unlike facing a crucial short putt with onlookers. While there are countless ways to wager on a tournament, simply placing bets on outright winners without further strategy is likely to leave your betting balance struggling.

Instead of relying solely on picking winners, here is a guide on how to build your betting card more strategically, balancing risk and potential reward to keep your interest alive through the final round on Sunday.

When analyzing golf bets, three primary factors are often considered: course fit, current form, and course history.

• Course fit relates to how a golfer`s particular skill set matches the layout of the course—whether it`s a course favoring long drives, demanding precise iron play, or emphasizing putting skill.
• Current form assesses recent performance, momentum, and a player`s confidence level. A golfer performing well in recent weeks is generally a more attractive bet than one struggling with their game.
• Course history takes into account a player`s past performance at a specific venue, sometimes influenced by factors like the type of grass or positive memories from previous tournaments. The ideal scenario is when all three elements align favorably. However, smart betting often involves identifying value by weighing one factor more heavily than others to find an edge.

Understanding Your Betting Options

Golf betting offers more variety than just picking who wins. There are many ways to place wagers, some carrying less risk than others. By structuring your bets intelligently, you can potentially secure winnings even if your top pick doesn`t come out on top. Here is a brief look at popular bet types:

Outright Winner

This is the classic bet: selecting the player who will finish first and claim the trophy. Given the large fields in golf, odds for outright winners are typically quite high, which also means they are challenging to predict correctly. Betting on a golfer at 30-1 is exciting, but relying only on outright winner bets will likely result in many weekends with little return.

Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes

These bets are considered more conservative, with top-20 finishes having the highest probability among this group. Instead of needing your chosen golfer to win, they only need to finish within the specified range of positions. A top-20 bet with odds of +120 might not seem particularly thrilling, but consistently winning these types of bets helps maintain your bankroll while you take smaller chances on outright winners.

A golfer with 30-1 odds to win has an implied probability of about 3.2%. In contrast, a top-20 bet at +200 odds has an implied probability of 33%—a significant difference in likelihood. This illustrates why it`s strategic to bet less on longer odds and more on bets with higher probability.

First-Round Leader

This bet provides faster excitement. You only need your golfer to be leading the tournament after the first 18 holes. Since odds for the first-round leader are often 20-1 or longer, these bets are typically placed using a smaller fraction of your standard betting unit. Factors like early tee times, favorable weather, and players known for aggressive scoring are key considerations. If you like a player`s chances to win the tournament, it`s often worthwhile to risk a small amount on them starting strongly. If successful, this could potentially cover your other bets for the rest of the event.

Head-to-Head Matchups

If betting on outright winners is a high-risk shot, matchup bets are a more controlled wager. You are simply predicting which of two specified golfers will perform better, either for a single round or across the full tournament. Betting on the full tournament matchup offers a more stable outcome over four days compared to the higher volatility of a single round. Three-ball matchups are also available, similar to head-to-head but involving three players, offering higher odds but also increased risk.

Props and Majors-Only Markets

Major championships often feature an expanded menu of special bets, or props. Some are available weekly, while others are specific to the biggest tournaments:

• Top American, Top European, etc.: Betting on the player from a specific region who finishes highest in the standings.
• Will there be a hole-in-one?: A straightforward bet on whether an ace occurs during the tournament.
• Lowest round, Highest round: Betting on whether an exceptionally low or high score will be posted during any round.
• Make the cut parlays: Combining bets on multiple players successfully advancing past the cut line.

Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Bet Size

Randomly picking players without a strategy is not effective; it`s a quick way to run out of money before the tournament finishes. Additionally, betting the same amount on every wager type is inefficient. Your bet size should reflect the likelihood and risk of the specific bet.

A recommended approach is to build your betting strategy around two or three main players and include different bet types to balance risk and reward. Since golf odds vary significantly, the size of your wager should be proportional to the implied probability of the bet winning.

This method works well because top-20 bets provide consistent wins, helping to keep your bankroll healthy. Top-10 and top-5 wagers might be sized at half a unit, while outright winner bets, being much harder to hit, might be sized smaller, perhaps 0.2 to 0.25 units. First-round leader bets carry higher risk but offer the potential for a large payout from a small bet size. Spreading bets across different markets ensures you have action throughout the tournament. Even if your main outright pick doesn`t perform, your top-20 bet might still win. Remember: the longer the odds, the smaller your bet should generally be, as the implied probability of winning is lower. Betting too much on long shots can quickly deplete your funds during a losing streak.

If you are betting on multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total invested amount needs to be managed carefully. Avoid committing too much money to any single player. As you add more players to your card, you should adjust the individual bet sizes downwards to control your overall exposure.

PGA Tour`s Premier Events: Majors and the `Fifth Major`

Like any betting activity, wagering on golf benefits from discipline and should primarily serve to enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. Golf betting can be challenging, and expecting to hit an outright winner every week is unrealistic. However, by wisely structuring your bets, effectively managing risk, and spreading your wagers across different markets, you can increase your chances of profitability and maintain excitement throughout the weekend.

Key Tournaments often highlighted include:

• PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C.)
• U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
• The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
• Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)

The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)

With one of the strongest fields in golf, a substantial prize purse, and the iconic setting of TPC Sawgrass, The Players Championship is often considered golf`s `fifth major`. While not officially one of the four majors, its level of competition, history, and signature holes—especially the famous island green on the 17th—make it one of the most significant tournaments of the year.

Bets to Consider for the 2025 PGA Championship

Quail Hollow is a course that rewards both powerful hitting and strategic intelligence. Players need to be bold off the tee but also possess the skill to handle challenging shots. It favors golfers who understand when to attack and when to play more cautiously. For this PGA Championship, focus is placed on players who demonstrate both aggression and composure under pressure. Successful players at Quail Hollow typically excel in driving distance, are proficient with long irons, and have strong scrambling abilities when needed.

This year`s event at Quail Hollow feels poised for a compelling narrative, potentially framing it as Rory McIlroy against players from LIV Golf. McIlroy brings a potent combination of course history, excellent current form, and intimate knowledge of this venue; he is arguably the player most synonymous with success here. Players from LIV, such as Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, will be aiming to make a statement, but they are entering territory where Rory has historically dominated. This contest is about more than just skill; it involves pride and a desire to assert dominance. Quail Hollow is a prime location for Rory McIlroy to perform strongly and reinforce his status.

Let`s delve into specific betting opportunities for golf`s second major:

My Favorite Bets

Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Win (+475)

Betting on the second favorite might seem predictable, but wagering on McIlroy at Quail Hollow is akin to backing a lion in its home territory. He possesses an unparalleled understanding of every aspect of this course, having won here four times, including his maiden PGA Tour victory in 2010 and the Wells Fargo Championship in 2024. His blend of driving power and ability to score on the par-5s makes him a natural fit. Quail Hollow rewards aggressive drivers who can shape their shots, and McIlroy`s characteristic high fade is perfectly suited to the layout.

Following his recent victory at the 2025 Masters, where he demonstrated resilience and the ability to close out a major under intense pressure, McIlroy`s form is clearly strong. His putting, sometimes considered a relative weakness, has been reliable lately. If he carries this momentum to Charlotte, he could be a dominant force. His approach play has also been exceptionally sharp, ranking fourth in strokes gained in approach shots over his last 32 rounds. While Quail Hollow`s greens are challenging, McIlroy`s confident stroke on fast surfaces is an asset when he`s in rhythm. He ranks second in strokes gained from tee to green and excels with long irons, which is crucial on a course stretching over 7,500 yards. His elite ball-striking and deep course knowledge make him a high-confidence play for both a top-5 finish and the outright win.

For the Masters, waiting for potentially better live odds after Round 1 was suggested. However, given McIlroy`s historical dominance here, taking the pre-tournament odds is recommended for the PGA Championship. If the outright odds (+475) feel too low, the Top 5 bet (+110) offers a strong alternative.

Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)

There are perhaps only two players consistently reliable enough for a Top 5 wager: Rory and Scottie. Scheffler is the epitome of consistency. He has accumulated numerous top finishes in high-caliber events this season, securing three top-5s in his last four starts, including a decisive victory at the RBC Heritage with a remarkable 31-under-par total score. He currently boasts the best tee-to-green game on tour and leads the field in strokes gained total. This exceptional consistency translates well to any venue, even one like Quail Hollow where he is making his PGA Tour debut. Betting on him here represents a calculated risk, justified by his consistent elite performance.

His recent improvement in putting is a significant positive factor. Even when other parts of his game are not at their absolute peak, his outstanding ball-striking capability keeps him competitive in contention.

Considering his upward trending form, capped by a recent win, and his proven ability to perform under pressure in major settings, betting on Scottie Scheffler for a Top 5 finish at plus money (+105) appears to be a solid strategic wager.

Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)

A Top 20 finish for Jon Rahm at the PGA Championship feels like a highly logical bet. Quail Hollow is well-suited to his strengths: he drives the ball with power, is accurate with long irons, and possesses the ability to grind out results in challenging conditions. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, enabling him to hit long drives while maintaining control—precisely what this course demands. Unlike the Masters, where he surprisingly lost strokes on approach (a rare occurrence this year), Quail Hollow`s layout rewards his reliable tee-to-green play. Rahm`s long game is consistently strong, and this course allows him to leverage that strength without being severely penalized for occasional iron play inconsistencies. The odds of -105 seem undervalued for a player who has finished inside the top 15 in five of his last ten major championship starts.

Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)

Corey Conners consistently impresses with his performance week after week. His tee-to-green game is excellent, ranking sixth in the field, which is half the battle at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is a major asset here, particularly if the rough is penalizing. Furthermore, his skill with long irons, especially from 200 to 225 yards (ranking eighth), provides him with a significant advantage on the longer par-4 holes. While his putting can be inconsistent, he doesn`t necessarily need an exceptional week on the greens to secure a top-20 finish. At odds of +200, you are getting significant value on a player whose game is perfectly suited to this course and who is currently in excellent form for top finishes, having achieved six top-20s in his last seven starts. The implied probability at +200 seems too low for a player of his quality on this type of course.

Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups

Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau

This matchup favors consistency and reliability. McIlroy`s overall game holds up exceptionally well over four challenging rounds at a venue like Quail Hollow, whereas DeChambeau`s game can be more volatile. As recently seen at Augusta, where he was -10 through three days but +3 on the final day, DeChambeau`s performance can fluctuate significantly. When his driving becomes wayward or his putting cools off, his scores can escalate quickly. McIlroy`s historical success at Quail Hollow and his more balanced game provide him with a clear edge over four rounds. While Bryson may drive the ball farther, Rory`s combination of distance and accuracy makes him the more dependable bet in a head-to-head format.

Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa

On a long course exceeding 7,500 yards, Rahm`s ability to hit the ball long while maintaining accuracy is invaluable. Even when Rahm is not playing his absolute best, he typically manages to grind out a respectable finish. Morikawa, however, can struggle significantly if his putting or short game is not performing well. This potential for inconsistency makes him a riskier bet in a head-to-head matchup over four rounds. Betting on Rahm means backing a powerful player known for accuracy and minimizing mistakes, qualities essential for success at Quail Hollow.

How to Bet Bryson DeChambeau

It`s understandable to be bullish on DeChambeau`s chances to win this tournament. His maximum-effort driving style is tailor-made for Quail Hollow, and when he`s in control, he can certainly overpower the course. However, betting on him for a Top 10 finish at odds of +110 may not represent the best value given the potential volatility in his game. DeChambeau`s performance can change rapidly; he can be incredibly dominant, but a single poor shot can quickly lead to higher scores. A more strategic approach might be to wait and observe how he performs in the opening round before placing bets. If he starts strongly, you might find more favorable live odds for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.

2025 PGA Championship Favorites