How to bet on golf: Expert tips and winning strategies for 2025

Golf betting presents a fascinating challenge, much like facing a critical putt under pressure. While numerous betting options exist for any tournament, simply picking outright winners without a strategy can lead to frustration.

This guide offers a structured approach to crafting your betting strategy, balancing potential risks and rewards to keep you engaged and competitive until the final round.

When considering golf bets, focus on three crucial elements: course suitability, current player form, and past course performance.

• Course Fit: Analyze how a golfer`s strengths match the course design. Is it suited for long drivers, accurate players, or putting specialists?

• Current Form: Evaluate recent performances, momentum, and confidence levels. A golfer playing well recently is generally a stronger bet than one struggling with their game.

• Course History: Consider a player`s comfort level at a specific course. Positive past experiences or course characteristics that suit their game can be significant advantages. Ideally, these three factors align. However, successful betting often involves prioritizing one or two factors to find the best value.

Understanding Golf Betting Options

Golf betting goes beyond just predicting the winner. Many bet types offer varying risk levels, allowing you to secure wins even if your main prediction falters. Here’s a summary of popular golf wagers:

Outright Winner

The most straightforward bet: selecting the tournament winner. Golf tournaments have large fields, offering attractive odds, but these bets are challenging to win. A bet at 30-1 odds can be exciting, but consistent wins are rare.

Top Finishes (Top-5, Top-10, Top-20)

These are more conservative bets, with Top-20 being the most probable. Instead of winning, the golfer needs to finish within the specified range. A Top-20 bet at +120 might seem less exciting, but consistent wins here build your bankroll while you take chances on outright winners.

A 30-1 outright winner has a 3.2% implied win probability. A Top-20 bet at +200 offers a 33% implied probability—a significant difference. Therefore, prioritize higher probability bets for consistent returns.

First-Round Leader

For faster action, bet on who leads after the first 18 holes. First-round leader odds are often 20-1 or higher, so smaller bets are advisable. Consider morning tee times, favorable weather, and aggressive players. If you believe a player can win, betting on them to start strong can be strategic. A win here can provide funds for further bets throughout the tournament.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Matchups are a more controlled bet compared to outright winners. You bet on one golfer to outperform another, either in a single round or the entire tournament. Full tournament matchups are preferable as they consider four days of play, reducing single-round volatility. Three-ball matchups involve three players, offering longer odds but increased risk.

Props and Majors-Specific Bets

Major tournaments offer a wider variety of bets, including:

• Top Nationality: Bet on the highest-finishing player from a specific country or region (e.g., Top American, Top European).

• Hole-in-One Specials: Bet on whether a hole-in-one will occur during the tournament.

• High/Low Round: Bet on the highest or lowest single round score of the tournament.

• Cut Parlays: Combine multiple players to make the cut.

Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Bet Size

Random betting is ineffective and can quickly deplete your funds. Avoid placing equal bets on every outcome, which disregards risk levels.

Instead, build your betting card around a few key players and use different bet types to balance risk and potential returns. Adjust bet sizes based on the odds and implied probability of each bet.

Top-20 bets provide consistent wins, stabilizing your bankroll. Consider smaller stakes (e.g., 0.5 units) for Top-10 or Top-5 bets, and even smaller (0.2 – 0.25 units) for outright winners due to their lower probability. First-Round Leader bets are higher risk but offer significant returns with small stakes. Diversifying bets across markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick struggles, Top-20 bets can still pay out. Reduce bet sizes for longer odds due to lower win probability. Over-betting on long shots can quickly lead to losses.

If betting on multiple players (five or more), balance your total stake to avoid over-committing to a single golfer. Increase the number of players cautiously, adjusting individual bet sizes to manage overall risk.

Key Golf Tournaments: Majors and “Fifth Major”

The Players Championship (March 13-16, TPC Sawgrass): A highly anticipated event with a strong field and large prize, often considered a major in all but name due to its prestige and challenging course.

Majors:

Masters Tournament (April 10-13, Augusta National): The first major of the year, known for its tradition and iconic course.

PGA Championship (May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club): The second major, showcasing top players in a competitive field.

U.S. Open (June 12-15, Oakmont Country Club): Known for its challenging setups and demanding conditions.

The Open Championship (July 17-20, Royal Portrush): The only major held outside the US, played on links courses with unique weather conditions.

Effective golf betting requires discipline and should enhance your enjoyment of the sport. Expecting to win every outright bet is unrealistic. However, strategic betting, risk management, and diverse market exposure can lead to profitability and sustained excitement throughout the golf weekend.

2025 Masters Betting Picks

Corey Conners Top-20 Finish (+155)

Conners has improved his all-around game, gaining strokes in all categories, including putting. Despite past struggles at Augusta, he previously had three consecutive Top-10 finishes. His current form and consistent tee-to-green play make a Top-20 finish a solid bet.

Softer greens due to Friday`s rain should benefit Conners, reducing pressure on his putter and highlighting his strong approach game. As the course firms up over the weekend, his ball-striking will be even more advantageous.

Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (+170)

Rahm`s T45 finish at last year`s Masters coincided with a rare dip in form. However, he has since rebounded and is trending positively. Despite LIV Golf participation, Rahm has proven his major championship pedigree, with a Masters victory and consistent contention at Augusta, including three Top-10s in his last five starts. His overall game and course history suggest a strong performance this year.

Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+125)

Morikawa is a strong contender for the Masters title. He`s shown increasing comfort at Augusta, improving his putting performance each of the last four years. He`s one of only two players with Top-10 finishes in the past two Masters, alongside Scottie Scheffler. His current form, particularly his ball-striking, makes a Top-10 finish highly probable.

While outright victory depends on his putting, his exceptional approach game and major championship experience make him a valuable bet for a strong Masters showing.

How to bet on Rory McIlroy

McIlroy is a top contender with complete game and strong current form. If you`re hesitant about an outright bet or the Top-10 odds, consider a live betting strategy. Wait for his first round performance. If he starts solid but not spectacularly, live odds might improve. Friday’s rain and softer greens will favor his ball-striking strengths. Consider placing a smaller pre-tournament bet and adding to it live for a better average price.

For McIlroy, patience is key. Time your bet entry strategically, focusing not only on outright wins but also the live Top-10 market as the tournament progresses.