Central Division rivals, the Dallas Stars, led by Jamie Benn, will host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche in Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Saturday. This first-round matchup is a rematch from the 2024 NHL playoffs` second round, where the Stars prevailed in six games. Dallas concluded the 2025 regular season four points ahead of Colorado in the NHL standings but entered the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The Avalanche won two of three regular-season games against the Stars but lost three of their last five games overall. Stars forward Jason Robertson is sidelined with a lower-body injury and will miss Game 1.
The game will commence at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Colorado is favored with a -134 money line, while Dallas is the underdog at +112. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5. Expert NHL predictions from a proven model are available for those looking to make informed picks for the Avalanche vs. Stars game.
The SportsLine Projection Model, known for simulating each NHL game 10,000 times, demonstrated profitability during the 2024-25 NHL regular season. It particularly excelled with top-rated puck-line and over/under NHL picks, achieving a 77-53 record and generating over $1,600 in profit for $100 bettors.
Stars to win (+118 on the money line)
Jason Robertson`s injury contributes to Colorado being favored, but the model sees value in betting on the home underdog. Dallas boasted a 28-13 home record this season and was profitable on the money line at home. The Stars also possess a significant advantage in playoff goaltending experience. Colorado`s goalie, Mackenzie Blackwood, will be making his playoff debut, while Dallas`s Jake Oettinger has 47 career postseason appearances and a solid 2.46 goals-against average in the playoffs. The model predicts Dallas wins 53% of the time. Caesars Sportsbook offers the best odds for a Stars money line bet at +118.
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+150)
Nathan MacKinnon concluded the regular season with 32 goals, eight of which were against Central Division opponents. Although he didn`t score against Dallas in the regular season, he scored the game-tying goal in Game 1 of last year`s playoff matchup, which Colorado won in overtime. The model estimates his chance of scoring at nearly 50%, significantly higher than implied odds for this prop bet.
Over 5.5 goals (-125)
The `Over` bet was successful in all three regular-season games between these teams, including a 4-3 overtime victory for the Avalanche in their last meeting on March 16. Colorado has also scored four goals in each of their last two games. The model projects a combined 6.3 goals and predicts the `Over` hits nearly 60% of the time. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Over 5.5 goals at -125.
