The 2025 U.S. Open, the third major golf championship of the year, is set to commence from Thursday through Sunday at the challenging Oakmont Country Club.
Leading up to the tournament, we sought insights from our golf experts regarding their potential winners and consulted our betting specialists to identify valuable wagering opportunities. Below is a breakdown of the favorites and other key considerations for the 2025 U.S. Open.
Expert Selections
Scottie Scheffler aims to secure his inaugural U.S. Open title.
Matt Barrie: Jon Rahm. Rationale: Opting for Rahm avoids the obvious Scheffler pick. Rahm appears to be regaining his major championship form, having tied for 14th at the Masters and eighth at the PGA Championship. His recent play suggests he is nearing the level he displayed when he was ranked the world`s top player before joining LIV Golf.
Tory Barron: Scottie Scheffler. Rationale: Oakmont is widely regarded as a formidable test, capable of challenging even the best golfers. Therefore, the champion must be equally dominant. My selection is the player who recently won three of his last four starts by a combined 17 strokes – there`s arguably no one more intimidating than Scheffler when he`s in peak form.
Michael Collins: Scheffler. Rationale: To put it in Marvel terms, Scheffler possesses the golfing equivalent of the Infinity Gauntlet and all the stones. Scottie is inevitable. On a demanding course like this, set up by the USGA, only a small group of players realistically have a chance to win. Scottie is among them and seems inevitable.
Jeff Darlington: Scheffler. Rationale: We`ve reached a point with Scheffler where picking him feels cliché, much like with peak Tiger Woods, yet his current dominance makes it hard to look elsewhere. While Bryson DeChambeau`s game aligns well with Oakmont`s demands, Scheffler`s current consistency and skill level are simply too high.
Michael Eaves: Sepp Straka. Rationale: The current Oakmont course setup appears to favor a traditional, brutally difficult U.S. Open style, emphasizing precision in hitting fairways and greens. Straka has been exceptional in these areas this season. He is accurate and confident, having already won twice. Furthermore, five of the last six U.S. Open champions were first-time major winners, a trend Straka could continue.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Scheffler. Rationale: If it were Scottie against the entire field, I`d lean towards the field. However, given the need for a single pick, the logical choice based on performance is Scottie, despite the part of me that feels something this obvious rarely happens in golf.
Andy North: Scheffler. Rationale: He`s won three out of his last four events. Success at Oakmont demands excellent iron play, and currently, no one is better with their irons than Scottie.
Mark Schlabach: Scheffler. Rationale: Yes, it`s not a bold prediction, but if the goal is to identify the player most likely to hoist the trophy, it`s difficult to choose anyone else. I picked Rory McIlroy for the PGA Championship based on his course history, but Scheffler once again demonstrated he is the player to beat. The world No. 1 is playing exceptionally well, leading the PGA Tour in nearly every strokes-gained category from tee to green. He`s also performing well in strokes gained: putting (25th), which was previously considered a weakness. If he`s in contention on Sunday, few players can close like Scottie.
Marty Smith: Scheffler. Rationale: Oakmont is arguably the most challenging course globally, requiring extraordinary precision and accuracy. Scottie`s current game is marked by freedom and precision, which I anticipate will translate well to Oakmont.
Curtis Strange: Scheffler. Rationale: He is the world No. 1, winner of three of his last four tournaments, and is playing a strategically demanding course like Oakmont. He`s the clear favorite for a reason.
Paolo Uggetti: Jon Rahm. Rationale: I was impressed by Rahm`s performance at the PGA Championship. He not only put himself back into major contention but also showed his game and competitive drive are aligning effectively. His style of play should be well-suited for Oakmont, and I see him as one of the few players capable of challenging Scheffler this week.
Scott Van Pelt: Rahm. Rationale: Simply because someone needs to pick a player other than Scottie.
Betting Insights
Jon Rahm seeks his second U.S. Open Championship.
Who is your pick to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Research: Rory McIlroy (+1200). McIlroy was recently a co-favorite at +450 for the PGA Championship. His odds have significantly increased, partly due to reported equipment issues. I trust him to resolve these and find his form at a tournament where he`s finished runner-up in the last two years.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Collin Morikawa (+2200). Morikawa possesses the emotional control and analytical approach that suits Oakmont`s demanding nature. He started the year strongly with two runner-up finishes but has cooled since March. His game profile, ranking fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach, is ideal for this course. If he maintains composure and plays his game, Morikawa could quietly be in contention on Sunday, which wouldn`t surprise many.
Anita Marks, betting analyst: Jon Rahm (+1200). Rahm`s long game is perfectly suited for success at Oakmont. He arrives in excellent form, and his competitive edge seems to have returned. His T-14 at the Masters and T-8 at the PGA Championship indicate he is capable of winning. Rahm leads LIV Golf in greens in regulation percentage, a crucial statistic for this track.
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
David Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210). I`m favoring his spectacular history in this tournament over his somewhat inconsistent recent form at a price I believe is quite generous. Schauffele has seven Top 10 finishes in eight U.S. Open appearances, with his worst finish being T-14 in 2022.
Pamela Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475). Golf success often hinges on trusting your swing. With back-to-back Top 10 finishes and positive putting metrics, Bradley seems to have that trust. He is a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly effective around the green. While his putting can be inconsistent, Bradley`s ball striking ceiling is high enough for him to be a contender.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?
David Gordon: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150). Scheffler has been inside the Top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major rounds (91%) dating back to last year. Historically, the last four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the last 11, were positioned inside the Top 10 after the first 18 holes.
Pamela Maldonado: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150). Ranking third on tour in Round 1 scoring average, Scheffler is elite from the outset. Analyzing his strokes gained numbers by round, Scottie performs best off the tee, with his irons, and from tee-to-green in the opening round, gaining an average of 3.98 total strokes – at least 1.5 strokes better than his performance in subsequent rounds. He starts strong and maintains solid play thereafter.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?
David Gordon: Cameron Young: (+10000). Following a difficult start to the season with four missed cuts in five events, Young recently finished T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open and T-7 at the Truist Championship three starts prior. He has significant major championship experience and success, including five Top 10 finishes between the 2022 PGA and 2024 Masters.
Pamela Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500). While putting and scrambling can be concerns, Bradley`s approach play and ball striking foundation are immense. With two Top 10s in his last two starts, his form is peaking. He`s currently performing exceptionally well from tee to green, ranking second in the field over the last 32 rounds. For those seeking a player with winning-level ball striking at longer odds, Bradley is a strong consideration.
Any other bets stand out to you?
- David Gordon: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104). English is having a career year and has never missed the cut in nine U.S. Open appearances. Fleetwood hasn`t missed a cut this season and has consistently been inside the Top 40 after 36 holes in his last 11 starts. Combining these two for a make-the-cut parlay seems like a solid bet.
- Pamela Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140). The odds are relatively short, but potentially still represent value. Since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five in 19 of 31 starts, including 10 wins. Unlike many low-odds markets, the data strongly supports this bet. Scheffler is remarkably consistent, rarely posts a poor round, and his ball striking alone is often enough to keep him near the top, even if his putting falters slightly.
- Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120). While DJ won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, that feels like a distant memory. Since moving to LIV Golf in 2022, Johnson has not seriously contended in majors. His best finish in 10 major starts since 2023 is T-31 at last year`s Open Championship. He has missed the cut five times during this period, including both the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.
- Anita Marks: McIlroy to miss the cut (+290). McIlroy`s form has appeared less consistent since the Masters. He shot a 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open and didn`t play particularly well at Quail Hollow. His driver control seems problematic, and his iron play hasn`t been stellar. There`s speculation about whether he lost some competitive edge after achieving the career grand slam.
- Anita Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190). Aberg came close to winning the Canadian Open recently. I believe there is good value in betting on him for a Top 20 finish at plus money. He drives the ball exceptionally well, comparable to the best on tour, and has recorded scores in the 60s in his last five rounds.
- Anita Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170). Straka is having a career-best year, finishing third at the Memorial Tournament and securing two wins this season. His strong ball striking makes him a potential contender on this course. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, second in strokes gained approach, and is in the top 10 for driving accuracy.
