The matchups are set for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, where sixteen teams will embark on their quest for hockey`s top honor. Only half will advance beyond the initial round. Here are our predictions for which teams will continue their playoff journey.
In the Eastern Conference, the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, possess all the necessary elements for a repeat victory. However, they are set to face a challenging series against their in-state rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida previously defeated Tampa on their path to the Cup last year, but the Lightning have strengthened their roster for this playoff rematch.
Another intense rivalry will unfold as the favored Toronto Maple Leafs clash with the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario. This postseason marks the first time in 21 years that these two Canadian teams will compete against each other.
In the Western Conference, a showdown between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars means one of these dominant teams will be eliminated in the first round. Dallas has reached the conference finals for the past two seasons, but returning for a third consecutive time will be a difficult task.
For the fourth season in a row, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will face off in the opening round. The Kings have been defeated in their previous three encounters, but 2025 presents a chance to reverse this trend.
Before the 2025 NHL playoffs commence, here are our expert predictions for each first-round winner.
Eastern Conference
Capitals vs. Canadiens
Series odds: Capitals -275, Canadiens +220 (via FanDuel)
Nivison: No teams enter these playoffs with more positive momentum than these two. The Capitals have enjoyed a successful season, securing 51 wins while Alex Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky`s scoring record. The Canadiens, a team in rebuild mode, saw their young players emerge, propelling them into the final playoff spot.
I believe both teams are somewhat fortunate to be in their current positions. The Capitals have performed well, but their overall performance metrics may not suggest a true Stanley Cup contender. The Canadiens are among the weakest five-on-five teams in the league and have a negative goal differential. In this series, I favor the Capitals` experience, depth, and defense over Montreal. The Canadiens might win a couple of games at home, but that will be it. Pick — Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2
Bengel: While I acknowledge that the Capitals may have overachieved at times during the regular season, I also don`t see the Canadiens as a strong offensive force. Their goals per game average of 2.96 suggests they lack the offensive firepower to compete with the Capitals. The Canadiens might win a home game due to the strong goaltending of Sam Montembeault, but that`s likely their limit. Even with uncertainty around Capitals` goalie Logan Thompson`s condition, it would take a significant downturn for the Capitals to lose this series. Pick — Capitals def. Canadiens 4-2
Hurricanes vs. Devils
Series odds: Hurricanes -280, Devils +225
Nivison: Let`s address the key issue: the absence of Jack Hughes significantly weakens the Devils in this series. Since Hughes` season-ending injury, New Jersey`s expected goals share is 48.0%, with a -16 goal difference. This is concerning considering their opponent is among the best five-on-five teams in the league. New Jersey`s highly ranked power play could be a factor, but Carolina`s top-ranked penalty kill might negate that advantage.
However, the Hurricanes also have weaknesses. A lack of high-scoring forwards remains an issue, especially after the departures of Martin Necas and Mikko Rantanen. Another concern is Carolina`s goaltending. Frederik Andersen has been injury-prone, and Pyotr Kochetkov`s performance has been inconsistent. Jacob Markstrom could potentially steal a game or two in this series, but New Jersey still faces an uphill battle. Pick — Hurricanes def. Devils 4-2
Bengel: While the Devils` offense is weakened without Hughes, the Hurricanes` scoring depth is not exceptionally strong after trading Mikko Rantanen. Carolina did score 261 five-on-five goals, but they will likely rely heavily on Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis in the playoffs. Combined with inconsistent goaltending from Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov recently, the situation isn`t ideal. Although I anticipate a low-scoring series, the Hurricanes are likely to prevail. Pick — Hurricanes def. Devils 4-1
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Series odds: Maple Leafs -192, Senators +158
Nivison: If you believe playoff success hinges on star power, the choice here is clear. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Jake Sanderson are excellent players for the Senators, but they don`t quite match the level of Toronto`s core four: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. Toronto also has Matthew Knies, who had a breakout season with 29 goals. Toronto`s top-end roster is stronger.
However, Toronto`s average underlying metrics give me pause. The Maple Leafs haven`t been a dominant five-on-five team in terms of scoring chances and expected goals. In fact, the Senators have been slightly better in some areas. Ultimately, the difference might come down to scoring efficiency. Toronto converted more chances, scoring 263 goals (7th) compared to the Senators` 235 (21st). Furthermore, the Maple Leafs` improved defense will make it harder for Ottawa. Pick — Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2
Bengel: Historically, the Maple Leafs have had strong regular seasons but have faltered in the first playoff round. This year could be different. Toronto`s talent advantage is significant, led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander. While their five-on-five play can be inconsistent, their goal differential is +33, compared to the Senators` -17. Their goalie tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz has also been reliable.
The Senators` main challenge is the lack of playoff experience for many of their young stars. Experience isn`t everything, but the Maple Leafs have been through playoff battles before. Both teams are strong on the power play and fairly even on the penalty kill. This series could be exciting, but I expect Matthews and the Maple Leafs to advance. Pick — Maple Leafs def. Senators 4-2
Lightning vs. Panthers
Series odds: Panthers -118, Lightning -102
Nivison: For the fourth time in five years, we`ll witness the Battle of Florida in the playoffs. The Panthers finally overcame the Lightning last season and enter this matchup as reigning champions. They`ll need that championship experience as Tampa Bay, reloaded and ready, is also aiming for another Cup run, led by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over the past few months, the Lightning have been improving, while the Panthers have been less consistent.
Matthew Tkachuk`s absence has contributed to Florida`s recent struggles, and while he might be ready for Game 1, his effectiveness is uncertain. Additionally, Aaron Ekblad will miss the first two games due to suspension. Can Tkachuk and Ekblad return seamlessly? They must, as there`s no time to adjust in a seven-game series. I anticipate a close series, but I`m leaning towards the team playing better recently. Pick — Lightning def. Panthers 4-3
Bengel: The Sunshine State will be the focus of one of the most anticipated first-round series. The Panthers finally lifted the Stanley Cup after losing to the Golden Knights in 2024. It`s unusual for a defending champion to be the underdog in the first round, but that`s the situation for this matchup.
The main question is Matthew Tkachuk`s availability for the Panthers. He`s been out with a lower-body injury from the 4 Nations Face-Off. While he`s likely to play, Tkachuk might not be at full strength, and he`s been crucial to Florida`s playoff success. Conversely, the Lightning are performing at a high level and could be the team to beat in the East. Nikita Kucherov led the league in points (121), and Jake Guentzel scored 40 goals in his first season with Tampa Bay. Ultimately, I think the Panthers are too injured, and it`s hard to bet against the Lightning`s current momentum. Pick — Lightning def. Panthers 4-3
Western Conference
Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues
Series odds: Jets -225, Blues +184
Nivison: The Jets were consistently the top team in the Central Division, one of the most competitive in the league. So, why is this matchup against a wild card team so difficult to predict? Because the Blues were among the hottest teams in the NHL for three months during their playoff push. Jim Montgomery arrived in St. Louis in November and transformed them into a strong defensive team.
The Blues` defense will be tested against a Jets team that scored 273 goals, tied for fourth in the league. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor accounted for 79 of those, and Gabe Vilardi added 27 more. Beyond their scoring, Winnipeg has one of the best goalies in the world, Connor Hellebuyck. With Hellebuyck and the Blues` defensive focus, I expect a low-scoring series. Close games can lead to unpredictable outcomes and potential upsets. Pick — Blues def. Jets 4-3
Bengel: The Jets won the Presidents` Trophy as the league`s top regular-season team. However, winning the Presidents` Trophy often hasn`t translated to Stanley Cup success recently. Since 2007-08, only two Presidents` Trophy winners have won the Cup, so history isn`t on Winnipeg`s side. Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck needs to prove his playoff capability, despite a regular season where he was arguably the best goalie in the league.
The Blues enter the playoffs as one of the hottest teams, winning 13 of their last 16 regular-season games. St. Louis has a strong scoring duo in Jordan Kyrou (36 goals) and Robert Thomas (81 points), but forward depth might be a concern against a strong defensive team like the Jets. While Nikolaj Ehlers` absence weakens Winnipeg`s forwards, I still expect the Jets to score enough. It will be a tough series, but I think the Jets will avoid a first-round exit. Pick — Jets def. Blues 4-3
Stars vs. Avalanche
Series odds: Avalanche -170, Stars +140
Nivison: This is my most anticipated first-round series, featuring two legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The stakes are high for both teams, who have traded future assets to contend this year. The Stars were more consistent throughout the season, but Colorado`s strategic moves have positioned them to potentially win their second Cup in four years.
The Stars have unmatched forward depth with eight 20-goal scorers, and Tyler Seguin will return for Game 1. Dallas has a potent top-nine forward group but is vulnerable defensively. Without Miro Heiskanen, who might return later, their defense has struggled to limit expected goals, which is problematic against an offensive team like Colorado with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas. In a high-scoring series, the Stars might not be able to outscore their defensive issues. Pick — Avalanche def. Stars 4-2
Bengel: This series will be a must-watch, a true battle. It`s unfortunate that one of these strong teams will be eliminated so early. The Stars went all-in by acquiring Mikko Rantanen from the Hurricanes, adding to their already deep forward group. However, playing without defenseman Miro Heiskanen is a major disadvantage against the Avalanche`s firepower.
The Avalanche, despite trading Rantanen, added Martin Necas and Brock Nelson. If any team can match Dallas`s offense, it`s Colorado. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are elite offensive threats, but secondary scoring could be decisive. Artturi Lehkonen was crucial to Colorado`s 2022 Cup run, and Valeri Nichushkin is also a significant contributor after a strong end to the season. Expect a high-scoring, close series, but I`m backing the more battle-tested team. Pick — Avalanche def. Stars 4-2
Golden Knights vs. Wild
Series odds: Golden Knights -235, Wild +190
Nivison: The Wild are difficult to assess due to numerous injuries throughout the season. Early on, Minnesota looked strong when healthy, but their performance has declined. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are back, giving the Wild a chance, but they lack the top-tier talent and depth to match their opponent.
The Golden Knights again appear to be a serious Stanley Cup contender, with Jack Eichel`s 93-point season, Tomas Hertl`s integration, and a strong defense. While Vegas`s penalty kill is weak, their power play is second-best in the league. Filip Gustavsson could potentially outperform Adin Hill and lead to a Wild upset, but Vegas is simply deeper and more skilled. Pick — Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1
Bengel: The Wild have talented offensive players like Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek. However, they ranked 26th in scoring this season, averaging only 2.74 goals per game. Even at full strength, Minnesota might be outmatched in this series.
The Golden Knights didn`t have to fight as hard to reach the playoffs this season compared to last year. Star center Jack Eichel had a career year, and Vegas has a deep forward group despite losing Jonathan Marchessault in free agency. The Golden Knights score 3.34 goals per game, fifth in the league, and will likely challenge Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson. This Golden Knights team is poised for a deep playoff run and should win their first-round series comfortably. Pick — Golden Knights def. Wild 4-1
Kings vs. Oilers
Series odds: Oilers -132, Kings +110
Nivison: For the fourth consecutive year, these Pacific Division rivals will meet in the first round. The Oilers won the previous three series, but could this be the Kings` year? Perhaps. There`s reason to believe Los Angeles has their best chance yet to defeat Edmonton, but the Oilers still have significant advantages.
Offense, or lack thereof, has been the Kings` weakness in past matchups. While still a slight concern, it`s less so now. L.A. scored 64 goals in the last month, the most in the league during that period. Furthermore, Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm is ruled out for the first round, and their goaltending has been inconsistent. However, Edmonton has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who are always difficult to bet against. They can single-handedly change a series, but the Kings appear to be the stronger team entering this series. Pick — Kings def. Oilers 4-3
Bengel: It`s a familiar story: Kings and Oilers in the first round. This is tied for the most consecutive opening-round meetings since the playoffs expanded in 1980. The Oilers have won the last three playoff series, but this could be the Kings` best opportunity to win.
The Kings have been a better scoring team this season, scoring at least five goals in four of their last five games. Los Angeles might not have a playmaker like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are capable scorers. Kings goalie Darcy Kuemper has improved since joining the team. According to MoneyPuck, Kuemper has a .963 save percentage against unblocked shots this season, which will be important against McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers` missing defenseman Mattias Ekholm could be a crucial factor. Combined with inconsistent Oilers goaltending, the Kings have a good chance to win this series. Pick — Kings def. Oilers 4-3
